the semiconductor supply chain continues to adjust inventories, and the q2 industry outlook is still sluggish, with only a few vendors experiencing more signiﬁcant growth in q2 results.
tsmc, umc and mediatek are among the heavyweight semiconductor companies that have held their corporate meetings one after another.
mediatek’s mobile computing platforms and growth products, including smartphones, ﬂat-panel pc chips, internet of t hings, power management chips and asics, are expected to grow by double-digit percentage points in q2, which is the main driver for mediatek’s q2 revenue growth that is no less than the seasonal level in previous years.
with demand for smartphones picking up and demand from umc’s networking and display customers also warming, wafer shipments are expected to increase 6% to 7% qoq in q2 and asps are expected to rise 3%, resulting in estimated q2 revenue growth of 9% to 1 0% qoq.
only mediatek and umc are special cases, t smc pointed out that in the ﬁrst quarter deferred shipments of wafers to ﬁll the injection, q2 revenue is expected to reach 7.55 billion to 7.65 billion u .s. dollars, a quarterly increase of 7%, if you exclude the impact of deferred shipments, q2 results will only be ﬂat performance compared to the ﬁrst quarter, economic factors and cell phone seasonal factors still exist.
according to vanguard, customer inventory is slowing down than expected, and the outlook for q2 is conservative, with quarterly revenue of nt$6.4 billion to nt$6.8 billion, down 1 .5% to 7.3% qoq.
it is the general consensus of the industry that the semiconductor industry will bottom out in the ﬁrst half of this year, and the industry is expecting a signiﬁcant improvement in the second half of the year. for example, nanya t echnology expects that dram prices will continue to decline in the second quarter, although the rate of decline is expected to be reduced.
memory manufacturer macronix’s chairman, min-chu wu, also said that the price of nor flash will still drop in q2, but if the us-china trade talks reach an agreement in the second half of the year, the nor flash market is expected to improve.
the most diﬃcult t ime for semiconductors has passed
siliconware’s chairman lin wenbo also said recently that the semiconductor boom is “past its worst moment” and that the second half of the year should be better. in addition, the ﬁrst quarter of this year, the global semiconductor wafer shipments showed a quarterly decrease and annual decrease in the “double-decline” pattern, and down to ﬁve quarterly lows, triggering the market inventory adjustment still continues to doubt, the international semiconductor industry association (semi) believes that the ﬁrst quarter is only a temporary adjustment, the second half of the industry will revive.
in the past, when sis held its conference, its view on the semiconductor boom was regarded as an important weather vane for the industry’s future market. however, after spil was merged into rayson, it no longer holds seminars, and the “iron spokesman on the boom” became extinct. y esterday, after attending the ceremony where mediatek ceo richard t sai was awarded an honorary doctorate by jiaotong university, mr. lin once again expressed his views on the semiconductor market.
mr. lin pointed out that the global economic climate this year is quite unstable, including the international situation, exchange rate ﬂuctuations are very large, coupled with the u .s.-china trade war stalemate between the two sides, and the impact of raw materials also followed the ﬂuctuations, with the general environment becomes weaker, the end consumption power followed by weakening, enterprise investment is also conservative.
he stressed that the overall semiconductor industry is greatly aﬀected by memory ﬂuctuations, as long as dram prices fall by 1 0%, the value of production will fall a lot, but “when everyone looks bad, it should be the bottom of the boom”, and according to the current situation, electronic product orders have gradually warmed up, the situation is slowly getting better, the second half of the overall semiconductor boom should be better.
in addition, sem i yesterday released the latest semiconductor wafer industry analysis report pointed out that the ﬁrst quarter of this year, the global silicon wafer shipments fell by 5.6% quarterly, down 1 % year-on-year, with a total area of 3.051 billion square inches, down for two consecutive quarters, and down nearly ﬁve quarterly lows, triggering market worries about the weakening demand for silicon wafers, is the semiconductor inventory adjustment is not yet over caused.
sem i report said, by the smart phone, servers and other terminal demand is sluggish, and dragged 1 2-inch fab capacity utilization, so that the main application in the logic chip, memory chip 1 2-inch semiconductor silicon wafer spot price is the ﬁrst to loosen, began to decline, the current price pressure is still not small, only in the power supply, automotive and other related products 8-inch heavily doped silicon wafer demand is more stable.
sem i’s global marketing director and president of t aiwan, william t sao, believes that compared to last year’s all-time high, the global semiconductor wafer shipments are only slightly down at the beginning of this year, mainly due to the seasonal oﬀ-season and the industry’s ongoing inventory adjustment. despite this, the industry will pick up in the second half of the year, leading to an uptick in semiconductor wafer shipments.
ms. cyd hsu, chairman of global wafer, the world’s third largest semiconductor wafer fab, said the industry is quite healthy this year. she said that compared to last year’s frenzy of customers lining up for orders, this is not the case this year, but global sources’ production lines are still full, with only some customers making inventory adjustments.